Navigating a Climate in Crisis: A Mālama Monthly Special Series
by Sharde Freitas | Reading time: 13 minutes
You may be surprised to learn that the actions we can take to navigate through the climate crisis are not foreign to us! Dr. Charles “Chip” Fletcher is the interim Dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, and is a world renowned, Hawaiʻi-based, climate science expert. This month, we invited Dr. Fletcher to share more about the planetary emergency that we are facing, what this looks like more specifically for Hawaiʻi, and some actions that we can all take. While the crisis is dire, there are actions we can take to build resiliency and sustainability, grounded in values found right here in Hawaiʻi: aloha: Aloha kekahi i kekahi, our love for one another, and aloha ʻāina, our love for this place.
What is the planetary emergency that we are facing?
Climate destabilization has been well studied and documented for decades now. Not only are we seeing it in headlines, but we are also feeling it in Hawai‘i with historic drought, wildfire, flooding, and other extreme weather events. These events can disrupt communities, and damage ecosystems. In our discussion, Dr. Fletcher highlighted the dangerous gap between international promises to cut emissions and the actual implementation of policies needed to fulfill them. As he described,
“At the end of the most recent UN COP [Conference of the Parties] in Glasgow, Scotland, all of the nations ratcheted up their pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions. This was sort of a stock taking of ‘where are we?’ If you assess the promises to cut emissions, we actually come in at 1.9 - 2.0℃ warming. So, the promises are really looking very good. There is room for improvement because a 2 degree C world is very dangerous. But compared to a decade ago we have made considerable global progress.
However, there's a difference between promises and actual on-the-ground policies. Unfortunately, an assessment of actual policies reveals that we are on a pathway to 2.7 to 3.5℃ of global warming. So, there's an important difference between promises and policies and we need to be very attentive to this issue.
In recognition of this problem, the UN publishes an annual ʻGap Report’ that provides guidance on correcting course. We need to close that gap. We need nations to actually act on what they are promising in terms of cutting greenhouse gas emissions.”
In summary, while there are great commitments and promises by many of the world’s nations to take climate action, we are still on a pathway to raise global temperatures to over 2.7℃ above the pre-industrial period. Currently, global temperatures have reached 1.1℃ to 1.3℃ above the pre-industrial period, and our aim has been to stop global warming at 1.5℃.
Alarmingly, according to the World Meteorological Organization, there is a 50:50 chance of temporarily reaching the 1.5oC threshold in the next 5 years. As Dr. Fletcher makes clear, despite the promises made, more investment and focused action to cut greenhouse gas emissions is needed.
What would the world be like with these temperature changes?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2018 report analyzed what the world would be like at 1.5℃, the agreed upon mark in 2015 to stop global warming. As Dr. Fletcher described, this report concluded:
“There would be a rise in extreme weather events. We would see severe shocks to our food production system. The ecosystems of the world would be experiencing relentless stress, and certain large physical systems of the world, such as Arctic permafrost or the Amazon rainforest, may move into a state of irreversible change.”
As Dr. Fletcher further explained, a 3℃ increase would be even more dire:
“With the rise of renewable energy worldwide, it may be that we have succeeded in avoiding the worst-case scenarios projected by climate models a decade ago. However, on our current pathway there is a distinct possibility of global warming reaching and exceeding 3oC. Climate models project that this level of warming would have a devastating impact in the equatorial regions of the continents. Roughly one-third of humanity may be displaced as conditions become unlivable due to drought, breakdown of food ands water systems, and relentless episodes of extreme weather. [A]t 3℃ global warming, the climate equivalent to the interior of the Sahara desert expands to become one fifth of the land on this planet. And it's a band that runs right across Southeast Asia, Northern Australia, all of India, [the] Middle East, North Africa, Central America, South America. This would potentially displace 3 billion people, and is already at work in many parts of North Africa, the Middle East, SE Asia, and Central America.”
The humanitarian crisis of this displacement would be compounded by the global disruption to social and political systems. Based on his observations of recent socio-political dynamics, Dr. Fletcher postulated that the impacts of displaced people will be heavily felt in border regions as they seek to crossover into neighboring countries; the politics of a country that displaced people want to move into may then shift toward policies of isolationism, tribalism, and nationalism:
“And, the politics of that country, as their borders start to experience this pressure of immigration, may shift to, nationalist policies, much like the Trump administration promulgated. Borders get shut down, thousands of immigrants are prevented from moving into better climate zones, and the humanitarian suffering becomes horrifying.”
As a further example, Dr. Fletcher shared an important reference to the migration of Syrian immigrants because of a civil war that had its roots in a thousand-year drought, exacerbated by climate change, which collapsed the farming economy and moved farming families into the inner city:
“ . . . where they found a corrupt government and a lack of government services. The young men formed a rebel force and civil war broke out in Syria - 4 million people fled the country into the EU, with many trying to get into England. This influx led the United Kingdom to succeed from the European Union, an event called “Brexit.” It is important to recognize that this political upheaval is rooted in severe drought exacerbated by climate change. The same type of mega-drought is being revealed in the SW states of the US. These events are only the beginning of a disruption to world order, to the world socioeconomic framework.”
What is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions?
Dr. Fletcher highlighted the overwhelming role that industrialized food systems have played in contributing to the climate crisis. Over the past two decades the amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide released to the air by tropical rainforests has doubled. Eighty-two percent of this forest carbon loss is the result of human agriculture. The acts of clearing land and industrial meat production are important components of this greenhouse gas footprint. As Dr. Fletcher underscored, “our food system is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, and raising beef as a food source generates 100 times more greenhouse gas than raising plants as a food source.”
In addition to industrialized agriculture, Dr. Fletcher also emphasized the role that fossil fuel industries have played in our decades-long failure to respond to climate change, and head off the planetary emergency we are now facing:
“I also want to point out that we've known since 1988 - in fact, we've known before then - but in 1988, Jim Hanson, a NASA scientist, testified before Congress and said, climate change is real, global warming is happening, it's taking place right now. More than half of our greenhouse emissions have come since then, since Congress was informed of this problem. And one very important reason why we haven't acted quickly enough is because the oil and gas industry has lied and has funded false information campaigns to spread lies about climate change. One of their tools, one of the mechanisms they've used, is to put guilt on us as individuals and say, ‘if you didn't lead such a large carbon footprint lifestyle, we wouldn't need to go out and drill for so much oil.’
The tobacco industry did the same thing. The tobacco industry said ‘you shouldn't be smoking, we wouldn't need to produce as many cigarettes.’ Well, this is just one of several lies that the oil and gas industry engages in. So yes, eating less beef is important, but we shouldn't feel guilty, and think that the entire solution to this problem lies with personal action - although personal action is important and it is a moral step for each individual to take.”
So what are some global-scale policies that can help to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change?
Dr. Fletcher did not spare us the details on the dire state of this planetary emergency. The consequences of global warming constitute a forever shift in the nature of our climate – for centuries, perhaps longer if we dont ramp up global scale reforestation and carbon removal technologies. He did, however, put forward a vision of the policies needed to head off the worst of the climate crisis:
“Stop emissions and engage in massive global scale reforestation. But that will take many decades before it has an effect. A new forest is actually a source of greenhouse gas until it gts matures.
Also, [we need] a global scale network of direct air capture facilities. We can pull CO2 out of the air. We know how to do it. In fact, I visited a plant in Iceland that is doing just that. The plant in Iceland is pulling four thousand tons of CO2 out of the air, every year, and injecting it into the bedrock, where it reacts and forms a solid mineral essentially locking away that CO2 forever. This is the largest direct air capture plant on the planet, and at 4,000 tons per year - we need 10 million more of them!
These three things, a global end to greenhouse gas emissions, massive reforestation, and massive deployment CO2 sequestration technology, are the critical elements to restoring a livable future.
Another very powerful tool is regenerative soil treatment, soil husbandry, and here is where not only native Hawaiian, but indigenous cultures across the planet know how to treat their soil well. Soil, it turns out, is the largest storehouse of carbon in the natural world. More than all the trees and plants, it’s the fungi system and the root system in soil that houses most of the carbon. Getting away from plowing the soil, using cover crops, husbanding the soil to minimize erosion, getting away from pesticides and artificial nutrients, of course, and into true organic farming. If we were to engage in regenerative agriculture, around the world, the soil would pull down CO2 from the air and it would be as big or bigger than a massive reforestation project. So our food systems can actually cut down greenhouse gas emissions, and . . . sequester CO2. Those are big steps we can take.”
What does this planetary emergency mean for Hawaiʻi? And what can Sierra Club members do?
Dr. Fletcher notes, Hawaiʻi does have some key advantages. Our isolation may provide partial relief from the severe migrant border problems that other places of the world will experience as populations are displaced. However, this isolation also comes with some kuleana (or responsibility) to be self-sufficient in terms of electricity production, fuel production, food production, water management, and to manufacture more of our own economic goods.
More importantly, however, reconciliation and restoration of Hawaiian cultural knowledge, values, and practices may be the key to how we can deal with climate shocks and help carry each other, and our islands, through the climate crisis. As Dr. Fletcher advised:
“I think the number one thing we can do is to heal our social framework. If there's a dramatic heat wave or a direct hit of a hurricane, a community that carries less resentment and cynicism is going to turn towards each other, rather than against each other. A big part of this is going to be native Hawaiian reconciliation, and some steps are taking place along there. But I don't think that true native Hawaiian cultural values have been woven into our system of government. We still have a fundamentally western, continental system of government in Hawai‘i.”
“Food production is an important area where we need more rapid advancement. Putting back into actual, legitimate, economic practice, [traditional systems like] fish ponds, expanding taro production and taro products, growing more of our own fruits and vegetables, these need to reach scale in Hawai‘i. Pulling the native Hawaiian components of Hawaiʻi out of the shadows . . . and actually basing government decisions on island scale science. Where does the best island scale science come from? It comes from indigenous practices.”
“I believe that putting authority, ownership, and profitability back into the hands of local communities is going to be essential to expanding renewble energy here at home. The whole thing with Kahuku Wind, and [Hunānāniho] in Waimānalo, and TMT really, you know . . . I think fundamentally it's about respect. It's about real respect. We need to legitimately replace the white patriarchy in Hawaiʻi with an indigenous - frankly, I think it should be a matriarchy, but at least an indigenous - system of government. And we're just moving so slowly on that, so slowly. But that, that in general, like I'm still at 30,000 feet — that's what I mean when I say reconciliation.”
Reflections to Ponder as We Chart Our Future Together as an Island Community
Turning to Hawaiian cultural values, and closing this month’s article similar to how we started, here is an ʻŌlelo noʻeau to ponder inspired by this interview with Dr. Fletcher:
He waʻa he moku, he moku he waʻa
A canoe is an island, an island is a canoe
Let us turn to one another, our island community, as we chart our future together. As has been done by Native Hawaiians, the original inhabitants of these islands, who voyaged across the Pacific, and sustained themselves here for generations, let’s continue to honor, cultivate, and respect their evidence-based science technologies and each other.
As Decolonizing Climate Action in the May Mālama Monthly spoke to the importance of decolonizing colonial structures, starting with our minds, Dr. Fletcher also provided practical steps that we can all take, values we can focus on, and policies we can pursue. Our future depends on our collective action for our planet and future generations.
Hawaiʻi has an advantage, and a kuleana, because the answers are here, in our unique shared context and experience of being people of these islands to know what aloha means. However, to unlock the true potential of these values, healing must come first. As Dr. Fletcher reflected, “the great thing is that Native Hawaiian cultural values give us what we need to fall back in love with each other to fall back in love with nature, that will be a resilient community, and then that can address the stresses and shocks that come with climate change.”